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In areas affected by Covid-19 more people die. Here's how much

Istat collected data on mortality in March 2020 in a thousand Italian municipalities. Wired has calculated the increase in the areas most affected by the new coronavirus

An increase of 466% a Bergamo , slightly less than the 280% to Lodi and Cremona , of 231% in Piacenza . These are some of the provinces most affected by the Covid epidemic – 19 and the increase in question it concerns the number of deaths. Istat collected the data.

Wired has chosen to focus the analysis on the regions which, according to the data released by the Civil Protection, are the most affected by the pandemic in Italy . Now, let's be clear: it cannot be said that these excess deaths are all due to the new coronavirus.

But in the midst of a pandemic, with data that by the same admission of the head of Prociv Angelo Borrelli are underestimated, go to calculate the trend of deaths can be a tool to understand the order of magnitude of the phenomenon.

And the attempt was exactly that. In recent days, the National Statistics Institute has released mortality data, common by municipality and day by day, in the period between 1 and 21 March of this year. Three weeks during which, according to official data, they died 4. 825 Covid positive people – 19.

We have chosen to make a comparison on a provincial basis, calculating the percentage change compared to the average for the same period for years ranging from 2015 to 2019 . Furthermore, an attempt was made to calculate how significant the data obtained is.

Yes, because only a thousand of the slightly less than eight thousand Italian municipalities have provided the data on the mortality of March 2020 to the ISTAT . For this Wired has also calculated the percentage of the provincial population represented by the municipalities that made the information available.

So the increase of 466, 9% of mortality in the province of Bergamo regards municipalities that make up the 68, 6% of the provincial population. The highest figure, in this respect, concerns the province of Parma , where the answers cover the 91, 6% of residents and report an increase in mortality of 164, 9% .

Increases that help to give an estimate of what the real size of the epidemic could be in Italy , beyond the numbers collected and disseminated by the authorities. Again: not all of these deaths are necessarily due to Covid – 19 . But in the midst of a pandemic, the new coronavirus has at least the role of main suspect.

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